Which teams has best chance, with current odds, to win NCAA Football championship?
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We are early at Thanksgiving weekend, which means we are very close to conference championship weekend for NCAA College Football.
This season should see us with a 1 vs. 2 battle in the SEC Championship game, with Georgia and Alabama all but set to face off with playoff berths on the line. Of course, things could change before then: the Crimson Tide could lose to Arkansas or Auburn. It will have to be them, because there is NO WAY Georgia is losing before the SEC Championship contest.
But how will that play out? Will the Bulldogs end Alabama’s hopes for another title, handing the Crimson Tide their second defeat and a possible ticket out of the final four? Will Ohio State win out against two top 10 teams (Michigan State and Michigan) and another top 15 team (Wisconsin) in the Big Ten Championship game? What about Oregon out west in the Pac-12? And maybe most importantly, will Cincinnati run the table and become the first Group of Five team to break into the College Football Playoff?
All of these are important questions that bettors will want answers to, especially when they are looking at futures betting odds and special offers for the title.
Right now, it is pretty clear (right now) that sports books as Caesars think three teams have a shot to win the title. Here are the top 10 odds to win the CFP:
Ohio State, +450
Notre Dame, +8000
There is one very clear problem I see with these odds if you are looking to find value.
Georgia is basically in the playoff: even if the Bulldogs lose to one-loss Alabama in the SEC title game, they are going to be one of the top four teams in, and should probably only drop to number two.
Every other team behind the Bulldogs needs to do a lot of work to even get into the playoff, let alone beat the Bulldogs, who have looked unbeatable. Alabama might be out with another loss, as would Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, and on down the list. So with two weeks plus the championship games left, how can you take one of those other teams if you don’t even know if they will be in the playoff?
Hence the reason Georgia has odds of -143 right now entering the last 10 days of November. The other issue is, if Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship, the Bulldogs’ odds are going to fall to -250 or maybe even -300, as per experts analyzing odds.
What do you do?
I think you have to take the Bulldogs now, and hope they beat Bama, knock them out of the playoff, and cruise to the title. Maybe you could hedge with Alabama or Ohio State, but you might be able to get them at decent odds anyway if the Crimson Tide wins a close game over Georgia.
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