More mild weather ahead for NJ: 40s, 50s, and even 60s this week
The Bottom Line
I feel like a broken record by saying yet again there is no significant snow on the horizon for New Jersey. (Meaning in the next 7 to 10 days, which takes us to the midpoint of February.) What a weird winter it's been. But there are still six and a half weeks to go.
After a split-personality weekend — a frigid Saturday, and a warm Sunday — we will fall into a generally pleasant, mild weather pattern for the first full week of February. Temperatures will run about 10 degrees above normal on Monday, setting up a beautiful day. And it will likely get even warmer by the end of the week.
However, the mild temps will be dotted by some shower chances: Tuesday night, Thursday, and Friday. That final system of the week has the potential to drive in some very wet weather. And probably another blustery cooldown this weekend.
All things considered, this will be a nice February day.
We start with a storm system spinning just off the coast. That has kept SE NJ cloudy, foggy, and even drizzly early Monday morning. Temperatures there, as a result, are close to 40 degrees.
Farther inland, clear skies have allowed temperatures to crash into the chilly 20s for most.
Once fog mixes out around mid-morning (8 or 9 a.m.), the rest of the day should be dry and easy-going. I'm calling it mostly sunny, even though a few fair-weather clouds will likely build through Monday afternoon. High temperatures will shoot for 50 degrees (or slightly better) across most of the state.
The only potential weather nuisance Monday afternoon will be a stiff northerly breeze, on the order of 10 to 20 mph.
Monday night will be quiet, clear, cool, and calm. Lows will descend to around 30 degrees — I expect a light freeze away from coastal and urban areas.
Clouds will fill in early Tuesday morning, leading to a duller and cooler day. High temperatures will be limited to the mid 40s Tuesday afternoon. (Still above normal for early February, by the way.)
In addition, a weak impulse will ride from northwest to southeast across New Jersey between 4 p.m. and 10 p.m. It may be enough to spark some raindrops, especially in NW NJ. Not everyone will get wet though. And rainfall amounts will be light — it'll just be some scattered showers.
A flip back to pleasant weather. Wednesday might even be the nicest day of the week.
Partly sunny skies. A light breeze. Dry weather. And mild high temperatures in the lower to mid 50s. You can't ask for much more than that here in the "dead of winter".
The late-week forecast gets tricky, as the tracks of two storm systems will dictate 1.) how wet we get, and 2.) how warm it will be.
The first chance of rain will be Thursday. While the NAM model favors a soggy day overall, the GFS and European solutions are only showery. An influx of moist air on a southeast wind should keep temperatures in the 50s.
The second chance of rain arrives Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. I'm a bit more confident this will result in a period of steady rain, ahead of a cold frontal passage early Saturday.
Friday will be our best shot at 60s. Again, it might be hard to truly enjoy it, given the clouds and rain chances.
Temperatures will tumble on Saturday. If it happens fast enough, we could see some snow showers on the backside of that storm system. (Although don't hold your breath.)
The Extended Forecast
Sunday looks like a sunny but blustery day, with both temperatures and top wind gusts in the 40s.
Beyond that, long-range models still show more rainy setups than snowy ones through next week. Again, I don't think substantial snow comes back into our vocabulary until the Presidents' Day Weekend ... at the earliest.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.