How will Canadian wildfire smoke affect NJ? What you need to know

I know you remember last June's crazy haze, suffocating smoke, and ominous sky, stemming from wildfires over Quebec and Ontario, Canada. Smoke particulates got stuck in New Jersey's atmosphere, leading to dramatic reductions in air quality and visibility. I even declared the smoke to be New Jersey's #1 top weather and climate story of 2023.

Once again, Canadian wildfires are in the news. And some of my meteorological colleagues have been quick to ring smoke alarm bells for New Jersey, harkening those frightening images of choking smoke and hazy days from last year's crisis.

But let's hold on a second here. The smoke situation is very different this time around. While I can not say there will be "no" impacts to New Jersey's air and weather, it is very important to keep potential impacts in perspective and in check.

It's time to squash some hype.

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Where there's smoke, there's fire

A large, fast-moving wildfire has been burning over the Canadian Rockies. Around Jasper National Park in Alberta, Canada, over 25,000 people have been displaced due to flames and smoke. Firefighters are struggling to get this blaze under control due to excessively dry conditions and shifting winds.

Back in the United States, additional wildfires have sprung up in eastern Oregon and Idaho. Lightning seems to be the predominant cause for many of those out-of-control blazes.

Smoky conditions have spread across the western United States. Air Quality Alerts and Red Flag Warnings for extreme fire danger have been issued in at least 12 states.

Where is the smoke going?

Huge wildfires spew tons of thick, dirty smoke high into the atmosphere. So high, in fact, that it gets caught up in the jet stream. That is the very fast "river of air" about 5 to 7 miles above the earth's surface, traveling from west to east across the mid-latitudes.

Just as we have computer models to track storm systems, wind speeds, and temperature advection, we also have forecast guidance to assess the movement of smoke particulates throughout the atmosphere.

This is a product called "Vertically Integrated Smoke" from the HRRR model, valid as of 4 p.m. EDT Thursday. It is showing the approximate concentration of those dirty smoke particles throughout the entire atmosphere. The bright colors clearly show the travel of thick smoke traveling from the western U.S. and Canada all the way to New Jersey.

Yes, the smoke plume is forecast to pass right over New Jersey on Thursday.

But that map does not tell the entire story.

Now we are looking at a "Near Surface Smoke" map, from the same model. This shows how much smoke is forecast to reach the ground. (A.K.A. Where we are.) The smoke particulate concentration is thinner, but still there.

So yes, there will be some smoke in our atmosphere. But is it enough to worry about?

What's the difference?

Jasper National Park is approximately 2,200 miles northwest of New Jersey. That smoke is traveling a long way across the continent.

Last year's fires in Quebec were about 500 miles to our north. Much closer, much thicker, and a much more prolonged plume.

That is the difference. And it is a big one. This is NOT a repeat of June 2023, as the fires are much further away and the density of the smoke over NJ is relatively light.

Any impacts for New Jersey?

Air Quality... The Air Quality Index is a product calculated daily by the Environmental Protection Agency. For Thursday, much of New Jersey is expected to peak in the Moderate ("Yellow") air quality category. This is the most important and urgent potential smoke impact to monitor — and this is a big nothing-burger. (We hit the higher Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups ("Orange") range several times every summer, due to hot temperatures raising ground-level ozone concentrations.)

Smell... You might smell a hint of smokiness in the air, but I doubt it will be prominent. (Like the truly "choking smoke" of 2023.) I'm leaning toward nothing here too.

Visibility... New Jersey's surface visibility should be unaffected by smoke. It just will not be thick enough. Models show 7 to 10 mile visibility at the worst.

Haze... Here is where there could be a noticeable impact. That upper-atmosphere smoke could cause the sky and sun to look milky and washed-out. That would be especially unfortunate given our upcoming stretch of beautiful, sunny weather. It may turn slightly less nice — and temperatures may end up a few degrees cooler — if the haze is persistent enough.

Pretty Sunrise/Sunset... Not all wildfire impacts are bad. The dirty smoke particles in the atmosphere scatter more light when the sun gets low in the sky. That causes more of the red and orange end of the visible light spectrum to be present. Consider this a Colorful Sunset Alert.

So what?

Overall, New Jersey's impacts from the Canadian wildfire smoke will be minor, at worst. Some haze and colorful skies, and that is about it.

We will continue to monitor though, in case a thicker pocket of smoke comes along. If poor air quality, low visibility, or deteriorating weather conditions alarm bells need to be rung, I promise you will among the first to know.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Check out Dan's weather blog or follow him on Facebook for your latest weather forecast updates.