Emmy Predictions Part 4 – Variety TV and Snubs

Will the host of the 64th Prime Time Emmy Awards walk away with his first?  Can Betty White break her own record?  Did you know Reality TV shows can win an Emmy?  You was snubbed from nomination this year?  Time to answer these questions before Sunday night's big night in L.A.

This is the last of my predictions before the ABC broadcast starting at 7pm on the Red Carpet this Sunday.  Monday I'll recap and show that I have no idea how to predict potential Emmy Award winners.

Outstanding Variety, Music, or Comedy Series

The Colbert Report / The Daily Show with Jon Stewart / Jimmy Kimmel Live! / Late Night with Jimmy Fallon / Real Time with Bill Maher / Saturday Night Live

SHOULD WIN: Jimmy Fallon    WILL WIN: Jimmy Kimmel

So where is Jay Leno and David Letterman?  Changing of the guard begins on Sunday when the night's host gets a well earned 1st Emmy.  Both Jimmy's are brilliant at what they do - I feel that Fallon had a few more water cooler talk moments in the past year, but either man deserves to unseat the king in this category.  Jon Stewart has been the standard bearer in this category having won every year since 2003 (9 straight Emmy wins!)

Outstanding Reality Competition Program

The Amazing Race / Dancing With The Stars / Project Runway / So You Think You Can Dance / Top Chef / The Voice

SHOULD WIN: The Voice    WILL WIN: The Amazing Race

The CBS show has won this category 8 times since 2003, and even though The Voice had a huge impact ratings wise and critics adoring the show, the standard bearer in this category will hold the award for one more year.  Where is American Idol?

Outstanding Host for a Reality Program

Tom Bergeron -- DWTS (ABC), Cat Deeley -- SYTYCD (FOX), Phil Keoghan -- The Amazing Race (CBS), Ryan Seacrest -- American Idol (FOX), Betty White -- Off Their Rockers (NBC)

SHOULD WIN and WILL WIN: Keoghan

You cannot expect Seacrest to win here if the show itself cannot get nominated.  Betty White would be the oldest person to win a competitive Emmy if she won here (breaking her own record after winning for her guest spot on SNL in 2010 at the age of 88), but the best show should also have the best host (you would think).

Biggest Snubs for Emmy Nominations

Kelsey Grammer -- Boss (STARZ)  /  This show goes into the corruption of Chicago politics with Grammer's character at the center of all of it (as Mayor Tom Kane).  He did win the Golden Globe within the last year, but who would he have replaced in the Outstanding Actor in a Drama Series category?  Deep talent pool, and Grammer lost out in the numbers game.  Payback should be coming in 2013.

Matt Leblanc -- Episodes (Showtime)  /  Another Golden Globe winner for playing ....... himself?  Matt is outstanding playing an exaggerated version of his acting self, and without question the best work of his career (which is saying a lot with Friends on his resume).  The show involves Matt being cast in a show he never wanted to be in at first, and the comedy ensues (and there are lots of laughs).

Steve Van Zandt -- Lillyhammer (Netflix)  /  This is a case if a man does a show that guests positive reviews but nobody see it can it make any noise with Emmy voters?  The E Street Band vet shows that if he wants to act, he will have a sustained career.  Van Zandt portraying a mobster may not be a stretch from his work on The Sopranos, but proves he can be a lead actor with intensity.  The show would have qualified as a Mini-Series (under 10 episodes), but with Costner, Woody Harrelson and Clive Owen in this acting category it would have been tough, but Van Zandt deserves some props here.

Dustin Hoffman -- Luck (HBO)  /  Maybe because of the way the show was cut short it cost this great show any sort of award love.  The gambling drama was centered around a race track, and unfortunately 3 horses were injured so badly they had to be put down.  Sad what happened.  This cost Hoffman, co-stars Dennis Farina and Jason Gedrick, plus the show any kind of recognition.  Biggest Snub of the Year?  Yes, but you have to understand why.